Battle Between Two Gold Prospects

On December 9, two emerging Gold Cup prospects for Cheltenham will do battle in the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown. It is the flashy new kid on the block, Flemenstar, up against the more experienced powerhouse that is Willie Mullins’ Sir Des Champs. The question is how do you separate them when reading the form?


Flemenstar

Adding complexity to what I think will be the top two in the market is the possible entry of Paul Nicholls’ Cristal Bonus. Nicholls has had a great start to the season, and his partnership with Ruby Walsh could be commonplace in the winner’s enclosure of racetracks up and down Britain and Ireland. Other entries include Willie Mullins’ lesser lights, Blackstairmountain and Blazing Tempo, as well Realt Dubh and Hidden Cyclone; all formidable opponents. However, both Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs featured on my Top 5 horses to watch in the new season, and I don’t see either of them finishing out of the top two in the placing in the John Durkan. The name of this blog may well separate them, but who holds the couple of inches of advantage?


Sir Des Champs proved himself to be a top class chaser last season, not only at Cheltenham, but subsequently at Punchestown in Grade One company. His form is strong, and his performances have suggested he is nothing short of classy, but Flemenstar is a relatively untapped talent, surrounded by exciting talk, and whispers of unpredictability. His level of improvement over the course of his novice career, and progression to his first run and win in this year’s Fortria Chase last week. He proved his class in that field, and it is his continuing improvement that makes me side with him, if only tentatively. With unpredictability with regards levels of talent comes a possibility of a horse not living up to the hype. You have to believe it to be a certainty, but that doesn’t always make it true.

Sir Des Champs

In this case, Flemenstar has had a run this term, and showed undeniable class, while Sir Des Champs seasonal reappearance will be in the John Durkan. This is enough for me to suggest Flemenstar will strip fitter again for his seasonal debut, and will get the better of Sir Des Champs. I would suggest a two to three length win for Peter Casey’s charge, but I expect it to be closer if they meet again in the Gold Cup. I think Peter Casey hopes Flemenstar is a Gold Cup horse, and if there is any chance for him to take him there, he will go. I expect his odds to shorten further after the John Durkan, and I think after that race, there will be no doubt about his prospects.

After seeing him win at Cheltenham in March, I was one of the people to suggest Sir Des Champs would be the Gold Cup winner in 2013, but having watched Flemenstar mature, I think he’ll take all the beating, both in the John Durkan, and the Cheltenham showpiece. I believe Long Run is not the horse he once was, and is vulnerable; Flemenstar could be the animal to take advantage of that vulnerability.