Friday, 16 November 2012

Battle Between Two Gold Prospects


On December 9, two emerging Gold Cup prospects for Cheltenham will do battle in the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown. It is the flashy new kid on the block, Flemenstar, up against the more experienced powerhouse that is Willie Mullins’ Sir Des Champs. The question is how do you separate them when reading the form?

Flemenstar

Adding complexity to what I think will be the top two in the market is the possible entry of Paul Nicholls’ Cristal Bonus. Nicholls has had a great start to the season, and his partnership with Ruby Walsh could be commonplace in the winner’s enclosure of racetracks up and down Britain and Ireland. Other entries include Willie Mullins’ lesser lights, Blackstairmountain and Blazing Tempo, as well Realt Dubh and Hidden Cyclone; all formidable opponents. However, both Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs featured on my Top 5 horses to watch in the new season, and I don’t see either of them finishing out of the top two in the placing in the John Durkan. The name of this blog may well separate them, but who holds the couple of inches of advantage?


Sir Des Champs proved himself to be a top class chaser last season, not only at Cheltenham, but subsequently at Punchestown in Grade One company. His form is strong, and his performances have suggested he is nothing short of classy, but Flemenstar is a relatively untapped talent, surrounded by exciting talk, and whispers of unpredictability. His level of improvement over the course of his novice career, and progression to his first run and win in this year’s Fortria Chase last week. He proved his class in that field, and it is his continuing improvement that makes me side with him, if only tentatively. With unpredictability with regards levels of talent comes a possibility of a horse not living up to the hype. You have to believe it to be a certainty, but that doesn’t always make it true.
Sir Des Champs
In this case, Flemenstar has had a run this term, and showed undeniable class, while Sir Des Champs seasonal reappearance will be in the John Durkan. This is enough for me to suggest Flemenstar will strip fitter again for his seasonal debut, and will get the better of Sir Des Champs. I would suggest a two to three length win for Peter Casey’s charge, but I expect it to be closer if they meet again in the Gold Cup. I think Peter Casey hopes Flemenstar is a Gold Cup horse, and if there is any chance for him to take him there, he will go. I expect his odds to shorten further after the John Durkan, and I think after that race, there will be no doubt about his prospects.

After seeing him win at Cheltenham in March, I was one of the people to suggest Sir Des Champs would be the Gold Cup winner in 2013, but having watched Flemenstar mature, I think he’ll take all the beating, both in the John Durkan, and the Cheltenham showpiece. I believe Long Run is not the horse he once was, and is vulnerable; Flemenstar could be the animal to take advantage of that vulnerability.



Thursday, 1 November 2012

Celebrating Before The Line - Triumph And Defeat

Anthony Knott celebrating when the race was won

Horse racing has become synonymous with memorable celebrations, from the teary eyed, heart-on-sleeve owner of Hunt Ball, Anthony Knott, to Frankie’s famous flying dismount. However, Anthony Knott jumped up on Hunt Ball to celebrate in the winner’s circle, long after the finish line was passed, and Frankie likewise. In certain circumstances, the celebrations come too early, with a show of over exuberance, or sheer confidence, but not all are rewarded with actual victory. In certain cases, celebrating too early can make the jockey look audacious and sublime in victory, lead to devastating losses, or result in a moment of sheer panic. These are the tales of tremendous triumph, and cringe worthy defeat.



Before the 2011 Epsom Derby, the script had already been written; the Queen’s horse Carlton House would win, and the field would fall in behind. In the course of the elaborate Royal procession onto the course, one nineteen year old jockey never received that script, but he proceeded to metaphorically rip it up in sensational fashion. His horse, Pour Moi, became the first French trained winner of the Derby for thirty five years, but the surviving memory of the day will be that picture of the rising star, Barzalona, upright in his stirrups, saluting the crowd with his unneeded whip. The youngster had no fear of the powerful trainers and jockeys who were bearing down on him, like the Aidan O’Brien trained Treasure Beach, who finished second. 


Bravery beyond his 19 years
This celebration has become Barzalona’s trademark as he wins big races all over the world as he becomes Frankie Dettori’s long term replacement at the powerful Godolphin stable. Luckily for Mikael Barzalona was aboard a horse good enough to warrant his iconic celebration. But premature celebration is a sin committed by many famous sporting names. On occasion they escape with a winning margin less than they anticipated, or they lose in the most embarrassing of circumstances.



Horse racing has always been famous for before-the-line celebrations and over confident riding, and not all are as spectacular as Mikael Barzalona on Pour Moi. In June 2012, a superstar was arriving on UK shores for the first and only time, to put her unbeaten record on the line against a British field. That superstar was Black Caviar, unbeaten in 21 races down under; the mare came to Royal Ascot to prove to the world just how invincible she was. The rest of the field for the Diamond Jubilee Stakes were an afterthought in the build-up, and Black Caviar was going to jump out, travel with ease, kick with two furlongs to go and win by a mile, but one thing we have learned in racing is never to expect anything, even a 1/6 unbeaten favourite. As the race unfolded, her jockey said go, and she pulled out a slight advantage over her rivals. With less than one hundred yards to race her jockey, Luke Nolen eased her down as he had done on 21 other occasions in Australia, but this wasn’t as easy as before, and the field was looming behind her like a rushing wave catching a stumbling surfer. When Nolen realised his mistake, and Moonlight Cloud looked to pass him, he desperately grappled with the reins for one last push before they flashed past the post. 


Black Caviar survives late scare to win at Ascot

The worry of dashing the incredible mare’s reputation was visible on his face, an air of embarrassment and genuine worry hung over the racecourse before Black Caviar was announced the winner. Nolen wasn’t guilty of celebrating too early, but he was guilty of over confident riding before the end of a race, which is almost equal to celebrating. Nevertheless, he survived the scare and it was 22 from 22 for the Aussie wonder horse, even if only by a fast finishing head.




In 2005, Irish jumps jockey, Roger Loughran wasn’t quite as lucky as Barzalona or Nolen. Loughran had just been a professional jockey a couple of days when he took the ride on the Dessie Hughes trained chaser, Central House in the Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown. Much of the pre-race focus was on one of the most famous chasers ever, Moscow Flyer and Central House who had beaten Jessica Harrington’s star before. After the final fence, the race was between Loughran on Central House, Fota Island, and Hi Cloy. With each stride it looked as though Loughran had timed his run to perfection as he was getting the better of the other two, when he suddenly shot to his feet, standing in the stirrups, saluting the crowd with his whip. As he did, the other two jockeys remained at work on their mounts, subsequently going past him. Loughran at mistook the winning post, while in actual fact there was 100 yards still to run. Hi Cloy went on to win, and the embarrassed Loughran had to settle for third on Central House.



Roger Loughran's excruciating mistaking of the winning line

 The mistake led to a 14-day ban for the young jockey, and the horse’s connections had to settle for prize money of €6,300, instead of the winning prize fund of €45,000. Trainer, Dessie Hughes remarked after the race, “I couldn’t believe it”, but he took solace in the fact that he may now have the best horse going forward toward the Cheltenham festival. The race was also famous for the fact that Moscow Flyer’s standing was lowering; he finished 4th behind the infamous mix-up.




Most recently, at the 2012 Galway racing festival, Davy Russell celebrated by raising his whip to crowd on board Rebel Fitz in the Galway Hurdle. When he turned back from the crowd he noticed the Gordon Elliot trained Cause of Causes right alongside him as they passed the post. Russell had an agonising wait for the photo finish to be analysed before the Michael Winters trained Rebel Fitz was called the winner. The ever professional Russell risked losing the richest national hunt prize in Irish racing for a celebration, and almost paid the ultimate price. Luckily, the line came in time and the celebrations began for the popular Cork trainer, and his very relieved rider. Davy Russell was ultra-critical of himself in the post-race interviews, stating with authority that “this will never happen again.” As we know, this sort of celebrating will happen again, it just won’t be Davy Russell.

Too close for comfort for Davy Russell and Rebel Fitz